The Double-edged Sword of Autonomous Driving

In the coming years, it’s highly likely that more and more vehicles will have deeper levels of autonomy, which means the drivers will have less and less to do. 

Although it doesn’t seem like it, we’re on the cusp of an autonomous driving revolution. While there are few truly autonomous vehicles (AV) available commercially today, the market for autonomous vehicles is projected to reach more than USD $556 billion by 2026. At the time of this writing, most modern cars have some features that are considered the base level of autonomy:  Steering assist, cruise control, collision warning, etc. Even Tesla, the current leader in self-driving technology, only offers a very limited level of autonomy in its vehicles. 

Because this technology is neither perfected yet nor widespread, it is the perfect moment in time for us to fully consider the implications and impacts autonomous vehicles will have—on our society, on the economy, and even on climate change. It’s important to think about these things today, even if that level of autonomy is still a decade or more away, so that we can plan accordingly and make the smartest decisions possible in terms of how we design the vehicles, their systems, and mobility as our cities and towns grow. 

On aspect that autonomous vehicles will likely impact is the number of people who can use them. For example, in most countries today, it is necessary to obtain a driver’s license to operate a vehicle. But in the near future when autonomous vehicles are ubiquitous, it’s likely that those who are too young to drive themselves will also use these vehicles. In fact, it’s likely that the more widespread AV vehicles become, the more people will likely come to depend on them.

And therein lies the unforeseen consequence:  The greater AV vehicles are used the larger their carbon footprint. This will not only jeopardize advances made in addressing the climate crisis, but will likely put us at great risk of not even meeting the minimum environmental goals we need to in order to avert major ecological disasters. 

Now, you might think, “All these cars of the future will be electric. Surely, they won’t be emitting as much pollution.” Yes, this is true to some degree. But they will need to get that electricity from somewhere. According to the U.S. Department of Energy, it takes an average of 33 kWh (kilowatt-hours) to travel 100 miles. Now, consider that there will likely be about seven million electric vehicles on the road by 2025. And, for argument’s sake, let’s say that those seven million vehicles travel 100 miles in a week. That’s 231 million kWh per week or over 12 billion kWh per year!

To put this into perspective, an average coal-fired powerplant produces only 3.5 billion kWh per year, and an average wind farm produces about 4.4 kWh per year. Only the largest solar farms in the world are generating enough power to cover the energy needs of that many electric vehicles, and much of that energy is already being used for our society’s other energy needs. And while seven million vehicles are not a lot in the grand scheme of things (there are currently 1.42 billion cars in the world today), that’s only the tip of the spear. 

As autonomous driving grows, it will be more than a set of features that enable people to drive and travel more. As such, we must take this opportunity now to envision how we achieve that future without sacrificing the delicate ecological balance we need to sustain our lives. I believe that as designers, we should build use cases that demonstrate how mobility should be managed within a sustainable energy framework.

Design favors simplicity, yet it's our responsibility to add friction when the environmental costs are high.

David Carvalho